A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach scolded him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
